Vice President Kamala Harris’s historic run for the presidency saw her aiming to build upon the strong support that former President Joe Biden received from Black voters in 2020. However, exit polls from Tuesday’s election reveal that Harris’s campaign struggled to match Biden’s margins, raising questions about the Democratic Party’s hold on this crucial voting bloc.
Harris had hoped her candidacy would galvanize Black voters, particularly younger ones, to turn out in record numbers. Polls leading up to the election indicated a narrowing of support among Black voters, especially Black men, compared to Biden’s 2020 performance. In the final count, Harris won 86% of Black voters, a dip from Biden’s 92% in 2020. Analysts point to economic concerns and frustrations over unfulfilled campaign promises as contributing factors to the shift. “Democrats have long taken Black voters for granted, but without delivering real change, they risk eroding that loyalty,” said Julián Castro, former HUD Secretary.
Harris’s struggle to gain momentum was compounded by a persistent association with Biden’s record, a connection she found hard to break. Harris faced criticism for her inability to differentiate her campaign from Biden’s administration, where approval ratings have remained low, particularly on issues like inflation and immigration. David Axelrod, a former senior adviser to President Barack Obama, noted that Harris’s appearance on ABC’s The View last month — where she hesitated to outline specific ways her administration would differ from Biden’s — underscored her challenges. “It was a disastrous moment,” Axelrod said. “Voters wanted to hear her plans, not just loyalty to the past four years.”
Despite campaigning heavily in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia, Harris’s messaging failed to resonate as strongly as Biden’s did in 2020. Polls revealed that a sizable portion of Black voters, particularly men, felt that the Democratic Party had not lived up to its promises. Harris attempted to address these concerns by highlighting her record on issues such as lowering Black unemployment and boosting funding for historically Black colleges and universities. However, her message appeared overshadowed by rising economic anxieties.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s campaign seized the opportunity to chip away at Harris’s support. Targeted outreach, especially toward Black men, and a focus on his previous economic record seemed to resonate with segments of the Black community. According to CNN exit polls, Trump won 12% of Black voters overall and notably higher numbers among Black men. His campaign’s strategy leaned into narratives that questioned the Democrats’ ability to follow through on promises, a message that found traction among voters skeptical of Harris’s ability to bring real change.
Harris also encountered setbacks among Latino voters and suburbanites, with exit polls showing her trailing Trump’s performance in key areas. In urban centers such as Detroit and Milwaukee, Harris’s numbers lagged behind Biden’s, while in suburbs like Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, where Biden had a 26-point margin in 2020, Harris won by just 23 points.
As Harris’s campaign analyzed the results, the influence of gender on her support among Black voters became a focal point. While she retained strong backing from Black women, her support among Black men fell significantly short of Biden’s 2020 numbers. To shore up support, former President Obama campaigned directly to Black men in the final weeks, urging them to consider the historical significance of Harris’s candidacy. Yet, despite his high-profile endorsement, the gap in support persisted.
Looking forward, Harris’s campaign team and Democratic strategists are reflecting on the implications of these results. The dip in support from Black and Latino voters raises questions about the Democrats’ approach to engaging core constituencies and how they might address voter concerns heading into future elections. The 2024 election has shown that the party’s longstanding reliance on identity politics may need recalibration to maintain its hold on key voting groups.
In an address to supporters Wednesday, Harris acknowledged the challenging campaign and the lessons learned. “We have a lot of work to do to rebuild trust and deliver on our promises,” she said. For now, her candidacy will serve as a case study in the evolving dynamics of American politics and the Democratic Party’s relationship with its most loyal constituencies.
